Old Probs real name is perpetuated in that of an important military post across from the Potomac River from Washington—Fort Myer. Even at the Zenith of his fame, General Albert J. Myer was a somewhat shadowy personality to the vast majority of his fellow countrymen. In military and scientific circles he was a more tangible figure. He was well known to soldiers, both in this country and abroad, as the inventor of an ingenious system of military signaling. This system was inspired by the signaling methods of the Indians, which he had observed while serving in the West as an army surgeon. It was taken up by the government, and Myer was appointed the first chief signal officer and the head of a new branch of the army known as the Signal Corps. In this capacity he rendered brilliant service to his country during the Civil War.

Far-seeing men had for years advocated the establishment of a system of weather forecasts and storm warning based on telegraphic reports of meteorological observations, and the idea had been proved feasible by the experience of foreign governments and by unofficial undertaking in this country, when, in 1870, Congress took the momentous step on inaugurating such a system. The work was entrusted to the Signal Corps. (General Myer convinced the Secretary of War and politicians that weather service could be performed more reliably and cheaply by the military rather than a civilian agency.) General Myer and the officers and men under him suddenly found themselves engaged in tasks having nothing to do with the art of war.

A few civilian scientific men were engaged to assist them, but on the whole, the soldier meteorologists performed their novel duties with wonderful success. The weather service remained under military control until 1900, when the civilian Weather Bureau was established. "It is probable," the once familiar phrase of official weather prediction, has been superseded by one more formal and severe, "the indications are." "Old Probabilities" is succeeded by an organization comprising several hundred stations and a large corps of staff workers.

Dear Editor,

In the last edition of the Air Weather Association Newsletter, in an article by SSgt Steve Elliott, there was a request for stories related to weather forecasting for possible publication. I have one that I am unlikely to forget and which might amuse the readership. Here it is:

I arrived in Keesler Field, Mississippi, in September 1943 as a newly-minted second lieutenant from the meteorology course at MIT. I was assigned the midnight shift, probably because the Captain decided to minimize the amount of damage an untried forecaster could bring about. My first night on the job there was no air traffic at all, and after studying the weather map, I just sat around. At 4:00 AM the phone rang. It was the Officer of the Day who wanted to know what the uniform of the day should be. I told him that it looked like it was going to be a nice day and that khakis should be fine. There was a long pause followed by "Lieutenant, do you know it's raining now?" The troops wore raincoats that day and I can imagine the stories going around the Officer's Club that night.

Whether or not it was by design or chance I will never know, but that was one of the few forecasts I was destined to make. In a couple of weeks I was off to 8th Air Force Headquarters in England where I was assigned work in climatology, including the Normandy invasion.

- Don Cooke, Ithaca NY

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Dear Editor,

The article by General Senter in the last AWA Newsletter reminded me of my experiences in the Pacific at that time. I was one of eight weather forecasters in Det 55, 7th Weather Squadron on Tinian awaiting the arrival of the B-29 forces. The first B-29 raid from Saipan encountered various weather conditions such as an area of bad weather at the location where they had designated to form up the force after takeoff — and the target socked in when they got to Japan. I went over to the Weather Central on Saipan and suggested they send a weather forecaster out ahead of the main force to radio back and suggest rendezvous point B or C instead of A, and target B or C instead of A in case of bad weather conditions.

As a result, eight of us (seven from the weather unit on Tinian and Al Louchard from another unit) began flying. Lt. Alex Hamilton "Ham" Howard drew up a logo of a badger or something sitting astride a B-29, labeling us the "Fightin’ 55th". Incidentally, four of the eight were shot down and all luckily rescued — I was the fourth!

Please send me a copy of the Video "Forecast for Victory" and thanks for your efforts with the Newsletter.

- Jack Grantham, Pensacola FL

Ed. A picture on page 141 in John Fuller’s Thor’s Legions shows the 7WS officers who flew as observers on B-29 weather flights over Japan: Jasper E. "Jack" Grantham, Robert Moore, Alfred Louchard, Ham Howard, Jack Nielson, Dick Worthen, Edward A. Everts and Stan Kimball. (The picture was courtesy of Lestor Gaynor, 1945.)

Dear Editor,

Just a couple of short excerpts of stories I was involved in as a flight engineer with the 57th WRS out of Hickam AFB, Hawaii in 1957-58.

One of the Honolulu newspaper reporters had been hounding our commander, Lt. Col. John Conrad, to set him up on a flight into a hurricane or typhoon out of Hickam when we had one to track. We called on him to go along one evening as a neutral observer. We entered the northeast quadrant as per usual and before we even got to the eye, this man was so sick that I am sure he did not want to even think about going along a second time.

Another time, while we were deployed to Eniwetok in the Central Pacific on the atom bomb series in 1958, our squadron was asked to fill in for a SAC aircraft which had not arrived for a mission to fly through an atomic cloud after the shot was fired. We made the penetration as scheduled and returned to base where we were sent through the usual decontamination procedure. After our initial scrubdown all of the crew were considered safe except for Lt. Col. Conrad, who had to practically scrub the skin off his bald head several times before he was declared clean enough. He is still alive and living in Ft. Worth, Texas.

A third incident happened at Eniwetok during the shot series in 1958. None of our fly boys other than myself had been involved with the B-36 program so they knew nothing about the noise on take-off these monsters made. We had one arrive for a shot one day and no one paid much attention to it. The next morning our crews were all asleep in their tents which were just off to one side toward the end of the runway. This behemoth came roaring down for take-off about 4:30 AM with six recips and four jets turning. It was fully loaded as it would return to the States after the mission. You can imagine the consternation and confusion when people thought we had an aircraft crash which was coming right through our quarters. I had been with the initial B-36 program in 1949-51 and got a big kick out of the situation. - William J. Townsend, Port Townsend WA

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Dear Editor,

My Aviation Cadet Meteorology class was assembled about 3 March 1943 at the Boca Raton Country Club, Boca Raton, Florida. The night of our arrival, before being issued army uniforms, we stayed up late polishing the fire extinguishers in the hallways, because top brass were expected to do an inspection the next morning.

At Boca Raton we had one month basic training. I remember jogging to the beach, a 30 minute qualification with a .45 pistol, and a calculus refresher course. A weekend pass allowed a visit to a USO in Fort Lauderdale.

About 1 May we were shipped by railroad to Grand Rapids, Michigan. We were lined up on the railroad platform at Boca Raton for a Peter Parade, spent a day and half in the railroad coach, then were lined up for a Peter Parade on the station platform at Grand Rapids — some sort of army regulations. The Parade featured a medical officer jogging down the line with a flashlight in hand.

In Grand Rapids we occupied the entire Pantlin Hotel. Nearby streets were closed off giving us a "campus" and space for close order drill. There were two cadets per room and daily room inspections. I recall that the bristles on our tooth-brushes, displayed on our dresser tops, had to point a certain direction. After 54 years I forget whether it was left or right. We polished the chrome off the bathroom fixtures so we could polish the underlying brass. Rooms were maintained spotless — part of being a cadet.

Classes were held in a convention center and furniture exhibition hall nearby the Pantlin. One thousand cadets at 1,000 desks in one large room! I recall three eleven-week terms. The instruction was excellent. A tall, slender warrant officer who had much forecasting experience gave the principal lectures on synoptic meteorology. (Fuller’s Thor’s Legions pg. 52 mentions "CWO Andrew W. Weston, who inspired the troops to live and breathe meteorology as few others did.") Maps and charts were projected onto a movie screen. There was a Major Taylor on the staff who had published a textbook. I recall one instructor, Staff Sergeant Don Rulison, who walked among the desks supervising our chart work. An intriguing course was Single Station Weather Analysis.

My college sweetheart came by bus to Grand Rapids in June. We were married on a Sunday noon at the Wealthy Street Baptist Church nearby on a weekend pass. She rented a room in a private home and got a war-time job running a drill press in a Grand Rapids defense plant. All cadets were required to live in the hotel.

At the end of the second 11 weeks — it must have been September — the entire school, cadets, faculty, administration, moved from Grand Rapids to Chanute Field, Illinois for the final term. The moving week counted as our honeymoon. We visited the famous Moody Memorial Church in Chicago and explored the bookstores.

The town outside the Chanute gates was Rantoul, IL. It was so crowded with army wives that even the chicken coops were rented out. My wife got a job in the Post Exchange. I lived in the cadet barracks.

The course ended 28 November 1943 when the attached orders were cut. There are about 700 names on the list. We exchanged our cadet GI garb for officer’s uniforms newly shipped into the PX for the occasion The 300 who washed out, we understood, were trained as operations officers. Upon graduation we were given a week or so to meet my family. Everything we owned fit in one foot-locker (which is now the tool chest here in my garage). We traveled on to Army Air Base, Fort Dix, New Jersey where I remained until the war ended. (AAB Ft. Dix was later renamed McGuire Field). Most traffic was B-17’s and B-24’s enroute from the factory to Maine, then on to England.

My name on the attached orders is at the top of page 2, Buddy Yost Aunkst, which I changed in 1951 to Lloyd Henry Yost. I was too old for "Buddy." I still have every scrap of paper relating to my army experience, except my discharge; that accompanied an application for a GI mortgage in 1955.

- Lloyd H. Yost, Shrewsbury PA

Onetime 0-874510, MOS 8219

(The orders sent with this letter will be on display at the AWA 1998 reunion.)

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Dear Editor,

The enclosed appeared in the Sarasota Florida Herald Tribune on 4 August 1997. A great surprise!

With Thanks From Russia

Man given medal for job well done.
By Cody Vaughn-Birch (staff writer)

About 50 years ago, John Jamrich was a second lieutenant in the U.S. Army Air Corps watching for rain and snow in Alaska, helping Russian pilots get American planes to Siberia.

Last February, the Venice resident was awarded a medal by the Russian government for his work during World War II when Russia was receiving military aid from the U.S.

"I never expected (the medal)," said Jamrich. "It came right out of the blue."

Jamrich, former president of North Michigan University, served in Alaska from 1942 to 1946. After much Soviet urging, President Roosevelt agreed to aid Russia with the Lend-Lease program supplying aircraft to the Soviets via Alaska. Jamrich’s job was to forecast the weather for American and Russian pilots ferrying fighters, bombers and transport planes from Fairbanks to Siberia.

On July 25, 1945 Capt. J.X. Jamrich was commended by a Soviet officer for his "excellent" work as a weather forecaster. "His forecasts were distinguished by their accuracy and, for the most part, proved to be correct, " said Lt. Col. Zeiklin of the Red Army Air Forces.

Jamrich was awarded a bronze medal commemorating the 50th anniversary of Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, or as it is known in Russia, the Great Patriotic War. Jamrich also received a certificate stamped with the Russian Federation seal and signed by Boris Yeltsin.

Jamrich’s interest in the weather dates back to his childhood. Between the ages of 2 and 9, Jamrich lived on a farm in Czechoslovakia and was often in charge of grazing the family livestock. Since the grazing area was over a mile away, weather conditions were a major concern and a watchful eye constantly had to be kept on the sky.

Jamrich’s curiosity of weather patterns continued in college. He studied meteorology and foreign languages at the University of Chicago. After graduation, Jamrich was commissioned as a 2nd lieutenant in the U.S. Army Air Corps. He expected to be assigned to the European Theater, but to his surprise he was ordered to Alaska.

Upon arrival in Alaska, his commanding officer discovered that Jamrich spoke several European languages, including Russian. The ability to speak Russian, combined with his meteorological training, made Jamrich the obvious choice to be the Weather Liaison Officer for the Soviet flight group, responsible for the weather forecasts for their flights from Fairbanks to Siberia.

Forecasting the weather between those sites was often difficult, said Jamrich. This was because the Russian meteorologists would not share information about the weather conditions in Siberia.

"Technically we were allies, but (the Russians) kept most of their data and observations a secret," he said.

The equipment Jamrich used to forecast the weather was usually little more than balloons and a barometer. These tools, combined with data collected from surrounding areas were all Jamrich had to forecast the weather for the long flight. Despite the limited technology, hundreds of planes were transferred during the Lend-Lease program and none was ever lost due to inaccurate weather forecasts.

There was little trust between the two countries during those times, and the Russians were very suspicious, said Jamrich. The planes would be flown to Alaska by American pilots, and then the aircraft would be checked over by American mechanics before handing them over to the Russians. When the Russians took the planes, they would have a crew of their own mechanics re-check the planes to make sure they were in good condition.

Jamrich spent much of his time with the Soviet pilots and found them to be highly educated and very intelligent. He remembers lengthy debates about politics and democracy. "The Russians thought they had a true democracy because they got to vote for their leaders," said Jamrich. "But when I asked how many candidates there were for each office, they would say, ‘One.’ "

Now Jamrich spends his time playing the piano and sharing his love of music with others. He performs at the Senior Friendship Center and has visited over 20 retirement homes in Sarasota County, where he likes to play classical music and tunes from the 30’s and 40’s.

Jamrich remembers those years during the war with fondness. Working with the Soviet pilots was extremely interesting and Jamrich considers the award a pleasant reminder of those distant memories.

- John X. Jamrich, Venice FL

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Dear Editor,

Air Weather Association members will enjoy reading the lead article in the EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, Volume 78, Number 52, December 30, 1997. The title of the article is, " Norwegians Led the Way in Training Wartime Weather Officers" by Sheldon M. Levin. (The newspaper can be found in many libraries.)

- Larry Riddle, San Diego CA

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Dear Editor,

As promised, I am enclosing a copy of my paper on important weather forecasts, a copy of which is filed in the library of The Mighty Eighth Air Force Heritage Museum, here in Savannah. (The original 8th Air Force was organized here.) It seems to me that in the histories of World War II, very little is ever mentioned about the importance of weather forecasts to air operations — especially in that stormy area.

If you read my Oral History you will also note that we were successful in detecting the first nuclear explosion by the USSR. It was my specific assignment by the late Lt. Gen. Yates to set up the air testing laboratories along the west coast of Alaska. We completed the task just in time.

Back to the Top

Prior to the organization of USSTAF, General of the Army George Marshall reported "Large scale daylight raids require unlimited ceilings for precise aiming from high altitudes. Days of unlimited ceilings are rare in Europe, and the development of weather forecasting became a matter of extreme importance."

On 17 February 1944, the command and operation elements of USSTAF were briefed by Lt. Col. Krick. He stated that beginning 20 February there would be at least three days of clear weather over Leipzig and other desired German targets. General Spaatz ordered the 8th and 15th Air Forces to prepare during the 3 days before the 20th. Actually there were 5 days of visual bombing opportunities beginning on the 20th.

Much has been written about those 5 days when up to 2000 heavy bombers from the UK and Italy, with fighter escorts, attacked German factories in daylight. General of the Army Arnold said, "Those five days changed the history of the air war." [Ed. This was Operation Argument and often referred to as "Big Week."] After the February offensive the allies made wide ranging attacks against the German targets, and especially continued to hammer the Luftwaffe. Within weeks, it was no longer an effective force.

General Arnold knew Col. Krick before the war, having visited him at Cal. Tech. Where Dr. Krick and his meteorology unit taught forecasting. Brig. Gen. Holzman was one of his many students. Gen. Arnold got him commissioned in the AAF. Col. Krick was trusted by Gen. Arnold and Gen. Spaatz.

The forecast for the D-Day invasion, involved concerns of agencies involved in shipping as to winds, tides, beach obstacles, etc., as well as Air Force concerns for aircraft. Again the Krick-Holzman forecast team predicted a period that permitted the invasion. (Many other meteorologists were involved, some dissenting, but the Krick-Holzman forecast, with support from Gen. Spaatz prevailed). Contrary forecasts by German forecasters, to the effect that an invasion during that period would be impossible, greatly relaxed German defenses.

Contributions by Col. (then Capt.) Robert Bundgaard and his upper air group were also important to the forecasts.

[Ed. See Fuller’s Thor’s Legions pgs. 85-100 and Bates & Fuller’s America’s Weather Warriors for an more complete review of the outlooks and forecasts of weather for the D-Day Invasion and the people involved.]

The excellence of American forecasts can be explained in large part by an action taken during the 1942-43 period. At that time I was a member of the Joint Meteorological Committee, an agency of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. General Yates, after much persuasion, got an agreement to produce 40 years (1899-1940) of daily weather maps of the Northern Hemisphere—a decision that may have been aided by a conversation between Dr. Krick and General Arnold. The decision required a major effort. The files on record, especially those of the U.S. Weather Bureau, had to be researched and the data collated to permit showing reports from all stations at the same time.

Finally, the weather maps had to be drawn. Thus it became possible to show atmospheric and weather conditions as they existed simultaneously, by synoptic maps. The final work was done at NYU and at Cal Tech.

Many copies of these 40-year maps were printed and distributed. They gave forecasters the opportunity to search for and possibly find situations similar to "Today’s Weather" or analogues. Development of weather systems and events in the analogues gave strong clues as to likely developments in the current situation. They were very helpful in making good forecasts.

In the above, the quotes from Generals Marshall and Arnold are from: General of the Army George Marshall, The Biennial Report, Chief of Staff, U.S. Army to the Secretary of War, 1 July 1941–30 June 1943. And, General of the Army H. H. Arnold, The Second Report to The Secretary of War, 27 February 1945.

Recommended reading for those interested is the publication Some Meteorological Aspects of the D-Day Invasion of Europe. It contains the proceedings of a symposium at Ft. Ord, California on 19 May 1984, sponsored by 4 California chapters of the American Meteorological Society.

I am grateful to Freeman R. Smith who sent important material from his California home.

Bob Bundgaard, always interested in historical events, sent the following for the AWA files. It was in the Colorado Springs Gazette Telegraph, 27 July 1995, by Todd Hegert in a series commemorating the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II.

War Need Overcame Politics

In war, the enemy of your enemy is often your friend. That’s how Robert "Oz" Osborne explains his honorary-membership in the Chinese Communist Party and army.

Bob Osborne [an AWA member] was a weatherman with the 10th Weather Squadron in the China-Burma-India theater. Toward the end of the war, the United States was flying bombing raids on Japan from bases in China, and weather information was desperately needed.

Osborne’s unit was invited to put in a weather station in an area of northern China controlled by the Chinese Communists. They arrived in the mountains near what is now Yan’an and set up in a labyrinth of caves that served as Communist Party headquarters.

"We were treated as very special people — there weren’t many Americans around," says Osborne. As a token of friendship, he was made an honorary member of the Chinese Communist Party and given a Chinese Communist Army uniform.

He remembers having dinner one night with Zhou Enlai. But he didn’t realize the historical significance at the time. He just knew that he had been relegated to dine with a lesser party member, while his boss had dinner with a man named Mao.

Osborne kept the story to himself after the war — especially during the anti-Communist fervor of the 1950s. "I didn’t talk about it for years, and I destroyed my communist army uniform. During the McCarthy era, it was scary."

There are many stories only recently coming to light from WW II especially about China. Bill Tazewell, the "Father of the AWA Internet website" and now "Webmaster Emeritus," "the Patriarch of the Internet" and a charter member of the USAAF weather service (enlisting in 1937), has been researching the life of Lt Col Douglas S. Mackiernan. He was in charge of the 10WS unit at Tihwa (probably the remotest, but a very important site) and stayed in China after the war employed by the US Consul & CIA. Bill has his notes on the Internet which can be accessed through the AWA site, http://www.geocities.com/Pentagon/2695. Joe Tucker found historically significant data on Capt Carl E. Rimmele.

Captain CARL EDWARD RIMMELE (1921– 1945)

by Joe Tucker, Col USAF (Ret.), Spanaway WA

I was talking to one of our substitute priests at McChord AFB after mass back in May 1997. After finding out I had been in Air Weather Service, he told me about his brother Capt. Carl Rimmele, a forecaster who had died in a Japanese prison camp in World War II. Knowing a little about AWS history I was apprehensive as I had never heard of a Capt. Rimmele, specifically as a weather forecaster, who had died in a prison camp. So, when I visited HQ AWS, I stopped by the Historian’s office and they could find nothing; but, indicated they would like me to find out anything I could. Col. Dushan (then AWS/CC) also asked me to follow up. On my return home, I talked to Father Leo and found out that Capt. Rimmele got his weather training at UCLA on a Army contract program following his graduation from Loyola University and subsequent entry into the Army. In the package of correspondence from Fr. Leo Rimmele was letters, telegrams and pictures I forwarded to Col Hayes at HQ AFWA with copies to AWA. In summary —

Capt Carl E. Rimmele was born in Holly, California on 2 April 1921, graduated from Loyola High School and Loyola University and joined the USAAF. He was a USAAF weather officer at an unknown base in China supporting the 341st Bombardment Group, 14th Air Force. The next dated correspondence is a June 1945 telegram to Carl’s Mother in Los Angeles regretfully informing her that Carl has been missing in action in French Indo-China since 29 May 1945. A letter followed providing more details.

Wendelin Moore, the base Catholic Chaplain also wrote to Carl’s Mother at the suggestion of Lt Schilling (Carl’s replacement), stating, "The only reason Carl was flying on that mission was because he is so conscientious and earnest about his work. He believed he could predict the weather more accurately if he actually saw the weather conditions over the enemy targets. So for this reason he voluntarily flew on many missions. You already know, I suppose, that he received the Air Medal sometime ago for these flights (he had over 150 hours of ‘volunteer’ combat flying). Because of this conscientiousness and earnestness he is admittedly about the best Weather Man in China. Everyone had absolute faith in his judgment.

He often risked his life in going on these missions when it was not strictly required of him. But by so doing, he was able to predict the weather more accurately and undoubtedly by risking his own life in this way, he saved the lives of many others by his accuracy and made our missions more effective. That was the highest degree of charity and devotion to duty. But that’s Carl. The men appreciate this and are united with you in hoping and praying he returns safely. "

After seven months of waiting and reading updated letters from many officers including Maj. Gen Chennault and General Spaatz, Mrs Rimmele received a telegram in February 1946, regretfully informing her that Carl had died in a prison camp on 30 June 1945. The letter that followed informed her that, "Carl was the weather officer on a plane which left this base at 9:35 in the morning of May 29 to attack enemy objectives along the railroad paralleling the coastline of French Indo-China in the vicinity of Vinh (18° 39’N – 105° 40’E). The plane was not heard from following its departure from this base, flying in the direction of the target.

An official report, based upon information secured by a China Search Detachment, states that your son was captured by the Japanese on 6 June 1945, near Thanhhoa, French Indo-China and taken to Hanoi, French Indo-China, where he died of malaria on 30 June 1945. His body was recovered from a public cemetery and will be reinterred in Shanghai, China. The Quartermaster General, Washington 25, D.C., has jurisdiction over matters pertaining to the burial of the military personnel who die overseas and any inquiry you may have regarding the location of your son’s grave may be addressed to that official."

Back to the Top

1997 AF WEATHER AWARD WINNERS

"General Kelly joins the weather service at a critical time when serious concerns about sound fiscal management and systems development efforts have been raised," said Secretary Daley. "His past experience, strong leadership, and management ability are well suited to meet the challenges facing the National Weather Service in the 21st century."

"I am honored to be selected as the Director of the National Weather Service," said General Kelly. "I look forward to maintaining the high level of quality service the public has come to expect from this agency."

Dr. Elbert W. "Joe" Friday, Col USAF (Ret.) previous Director of the National Weather Service was appointed as NOAA Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) on 30 June 1997. He is internationally known as the architect of the NWS Modernization Plan that brought Doppler radar (NEXRAD), GOES, ASOS, AWIPS and many other technological and scientific advances to weather observing, analysis and forecasting.

The American Meteorological Society announced the results of recent elections and their President-Elect for 1998 is George L. Frederick Jr., Col USAF (Ret.), a Project Manager and Senior Staff Scientist at Radian International LLC, Meteorological Systems in Austin, Texas. George retired from a 30-yr career in the US Air Force in 1993; his last position was Commander of the Air Weather Service. He was the National Weather Association President-Elect in 1985 and President in 1986. Congratulations George! — First to be elected President of both the NWA and AMS.

Elected as a Councilor of the AMS was Colonel John L. Hayes, Commander of the Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, Nebraska. He recently served as a Councilor of the National Weather Association (96-97).

Dr. Thomas D. Potter, Col USAF (Ret.), former Vice-Commander of the AWS, is on the AMS Council and was designated as an Alumni Fellow by Penn State University, the highest award given to alumni for professional accomplishments. Tom is the Regional Director of the National Weather Service Western Region, comprised of the eight western states in the CONUS. The President of the United States designated Tom as a ‘Meritorious Executive for sustained superior performance in the management of programs of the US Government and for noteworthy achievement of quality and efficiency of the public service.’ He recently underwent heart bypass surgery and is recuperating well. Best wishes Tom for a speedy and full recovery!

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